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“Literature review of Transformative Artificial Intelligence timelines” by Jaime Sevilla

AI Safety: Forecasting


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We summarize and compare several models and forecasts predicting when transformative AI will be developed.


  • The review includes quantitative models, including both outside and inside view, and judgment-based forecasts by (teams of) experts.
  • While we do not necessarily endorse their conclusions, the inside-view model the Epoch team found most compelling is Ajeya Cotra’s “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”, the best-rated outside-view model was Tom Davidson’s “Semi-informative priors over AI timelines”, and the best-rated judgment-based forecast was Samotsvety’s AGI Timelines Forecast.
  • The inside-view models we reviewed predicted shorter timelines (e.g. bioanchors has a median of 2052) while the outside-view models predicted longer timelines (e.g. semi-informative priors has a median over 2100). The judgment-based forecasts are skewed towards agreement with the inside-view models, and are often more aggressive (e.g. Samotsvety assigned a median of 2043).

Original article:

Narrated for the Effective Altruism Forum by TYPE III AUDIO.

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