May 2023: Welcome to the alpha release of TYPE III AUDIO.
Expect very rough edges and very broken stuff—and daily improvements.
Please share your thoughts, but don't share this link on social media, for now.
“Literature review of Transformative Artificial Intelligence timelines” by Jaime Sevilla
This is a linkpost for https://epochai.org/blog/literature-review-of-transformative-artificial-intelligence-timelines
We summarize and compare several models and forecasts predicting when transformative AI will be developed.
- The review includes quantitative models, including both outside and inside view, and judgment-based forecasts by (teams of) experts.
- While we do not necessarily endorse their conclusions, the inside-view model the Epoch team found most compelling is Ajeya Cotra’s “Forecasting TAI with biological anchors”, the best-rated outside-view model was Tom Davidson’s “Semi-informative priors over AI timelines”, and the best-rated judgment-based forecast was Samotsvety’s AGI Timelines Forecast.
- The inside-view models we reviewed predicted shorter timelines (e.g. bioanchors has a median of 2052) while the outside-view models predicted longer timelines (e.g. semi-informative priors has a median over 2100). The judgment-based forecasts are skewed towards agreement with the inside-view models, and are often more aggressive (e.g. Samotsvety assigned a median of 2043).
Narrated for the Effective Altruism Forum by TYPE III AUDIO.