“The Parable of the King and the Random Process” by moridinamael

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/LzQtrHSYDafXynofq/the-parable-of-the-king-and-the-random-process

~ A Parable of Forecasting Under Model Uncertainty ~

You, the monarch, need to know when the rainy season will begin, in order to properly time the planting of the crops. You have two advisors, Pronto and Eternidad, who you trust exactly equally. 

You ask them both: "When will the next heavy rain occur?"

Pronto says, "Three weeks from today."

Eternidad says, "Ten years from today."