“Why I think strong general AI is coming soon” by Porby

https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4urTDkBbtNuLivJx/why-i-think-strong-general-ai-is-coming-soon

I think there is little time left before someone builds AGI (median ~2030). Once upon a time, I didn't think this.

This post attempts to walk through some of the observations and insights that collapsed my estimates.

The core ideas are as follows:

1. We've already captured way too much of intelligence with way too little effort.
2. Everything points towards us capturing way more of intelligence with very little additional effort.
3. Trying to create a self-consistent world