June 2023: Welcome to the alpha release of TYPE III AUDIO.
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“Why I think strong general AI is coming soon” by Porby
LessWrong (Curated)
Audio version of the posts shared in the LessWrong Curated newsletter.
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/kDjKF2yFhFEWe4hgC/announcing-the-lesswrong-curated-podcast
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https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K4urTDkBbtNuLivJx/why-i-think-strong-general-ai-is-coming-soon
I think there is little time left before someone builds AGI (median ~2030). Once upon a time, I didn't think this.
This post attempts to walk through some of the observations and insights that collapsed my estimates.
The core ideas are as follows:
- We've already captured way too much of intelligence with way too little effort.
- Everything points towards us capturing way more of intelligence with very little additional effort.
- Trying to create a self-consistent world