June 2023: Welcome to the alpha release of TYPE III AUDIO.
Expect very rough edges and very broken stuff—and daily improvements. Please share your thoughts.

Homearrow rightPodcasts

“How much do you believe your results?” by Eric Neyman

LessWrong (Curated)

Audio version of the posts shared in the LessWrong Curated newsletter.



You are the director of a giant government research program that’s conducting randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on two thousand health interventions, so that you can pick out the most cost-effective ones and promote them among the general population.

The quality of the two thousand interventions follows a normal distribution, centered at zero (no harm or benefit) and with standard deviation 1. (Pick whatever units you like — maybe one quality-adjusted life-year per ten thousand dollars of spending, or something in that ballpark.)

Unfortunately, you don’t know exactly how good each intervention is — after all, then you wouldn’t be doing this job. All you can do is get a noisy measurement of intervention quality using an RCT. We’ll call this measurement the intervention’s performance in your RCT.