“Where I agree and disagree with Eliezer” by Paul Christiano

Crossposted from the AI Alignment Forum. May contain more technical jargon than usual.

(Partially in response to AGI Ruin: A list of Lethalities. Written in the same rambling style. Not exhaustive.)

Agreements

1. Powerful AI systems have a good chance of deliberately and irreversibly disempowering humanity. This is a much easier failure mode than killing everyone with destructive physical technologies.
2. Catastrophically risky AI systems could plausibly exist soon, and there likely won’t be a strong consensus about this fact until such systems pose a meaningful existential risk per year. There is not necessarily any “fire alarm.”
3. Even if there were consensus about a risk from powerful AI systems, there is a good chance that the world would respond in a totally unproductive way. It’s wishful thinking to look at possible stories of doom and say “we wouldn’t let that happen;” humanity is fully capable of messing up even very basic challenges, especially if they are novel.