An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks #2

This is the second post in a sequence of posts giving an overview of catastrophic AI risks.2 Malicious UseOn the morning of March 20, 1995, five men entered the Tokyo subway system. After boarding separate subway lines, they continued for several stops before dropping the bags they were carrying and exiting. An odorless, colorless liquid inside the bags began to vaporize. Within minutes, commuters began choking and vomiting. The trains continued on toward the heart of Tokyo, with sickened passengers leaving the cars at each station. The fumes were spread at each stop, either by emanating from the tainted cars or through contact with people's clothing and shoes. By the end of the day, 13 people lay dead and 5,800 seriously injured. The group responsible for the attack was the religious cult Aum Shinrikyo [5]. Its motive for murdering innocent people? To bring about the end of the world.Powerful new technologies offer tremendous potential benefits, but they also carry the risk of empowering malicious actors to cause widespread harm. There will always be those with the worst of intentions, and AIs could provide them with a formidable tool to achieve their objectives. Moreover, as AI technology advances, severe malicious use could potentially destabilize society, increasing the likelihood of other risks.In this section, we will explore the various ways in which the malicious use of advanced AIs could pose catastrophic risks. These include engineering biochemical weapons, unleashing rogue AIs, using persuasive AIs to spread propaganda and erode consensus reality, and leveraging censorship and mass surveillance to irreversibly concentrate power. We will conclude by discussing possible strategies for mitigating the risks associated with the malicious use of AIs.Unilateral actors considerably increase the risks of malicious use. In instances where numerous actors have access to a powerful technology or dangerous information that could be used for harmful purposes, it only takes one individual to cause significant devastation. Malicious actors themselves are the clearest example of this, but recklessness can be equally dangerous. For example, a single research team might be excited to open source an AI system with biological research capabilities, which would speed up research and potentially save lives, but this could also increase the risk of malicious use if the AI system could be repurposed to develop bioweapons. In situations like this, the outcome may be determined by the least risk-averse research group. If only one research group thinks the benefits outweigh the risks, it could act unilaterally, deciding the outcome even if most others don't agree. And if they are wrong and someone does decide to develop a bioweapon, it would be too late to reverse course.By default, advanced AIs may increase the destructive capacity of both the most powerful and the general population. Thus, the growing potential for AIs to empower malicious actors is one of the most severe threats humanity will face in the coming decades. The examples we give in this section are only those we can foresee. It is possible that AIs could aid in the [...]