An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks #1

This is the first post in a sequence of posts giving an overview of catastrophic AI risks.AbstractRapid advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) have sparked growing concerns among experts, policymakers, and world leaders regarding the potential for increasingly advanced AI systems to pose catastrophic risks. Although numerous risks have been detailed separately, there is a pressing need for a systematic discussion and illustration of the potential dangers to better inform efforts to mitigate them. This paper provides an overview of the main sources of catastrophic AI risks, which we organize into four categories: malicious use, in which individuals or groups intentionally use AIs to cause harm; AI race, in which competitive environments compel actors to deploy unsafe AIs or cede control to AIs; organizational risks, highlighting how human factors and complex systems can increase the chances of catastrophic accidents; and rogue AIs, describing the inherent difficulty in controlling agents far more intelligent than humans. For each category of risk, we describe specific hazards, present illustrative stories, envision ideal scenarios, and propose practical suggestions for mitigating these dangers. Our goal is to foster a comprehensive understanding of these risks and inspire collective and proactive efforts to ensure that AIs are developed and deployed in a safe manner. Ultimately, we hope this will allow us to realize the benefits of this powerful technology while minimizing the potential for catastrophic outcomes.Executive SummaryArtificial intelligence (AI) has seen rapid advancements in recent years, raising concerns among AI experts, policymakers, and world leaders about the potential risks posed by advanced AIs. As with all powerful technologies, AI must be handled with great responsibility to manage the risks and harness its potential for the betterment of society. However, there is limited accessible information on how catastrophic or existential AI risks might transpire or be addressed. While numerous sources on this subject exist, they tend to be spread across various papers, often targeted toward a narrow audience or focused on specific risks. In this paper, we provide an overview of the main sources of catastrophic AI risk, which we organize into four categories:Malicious use. Actors could intentionally harness powerful AIs to cause widespread harm. Specific risks include bioterrorism enabled by AIs that can help humans create deadly pathogens; the deliberate dissemination of uncontrolled AI agents; and the use of AI capabilities for propaganda, censorship, and surveillance. To reduce these risks, we suggest improving biosecurity, restricting access to the most dangerous AI models, and holding AI developers legally liable for damages caused by their AI systems.AI race. Competition could pressure nations and corporations to rush the development of AIs and cede control to AI systems. Militaries might face pressure to develop autonomous weapons and use AIs for cyberwarfare, enabling a new kind of automated warfare where accidents can spiral out of control before humans have the chance to intervene. Corporations will face similar incentives to automate human labor and prioritize profits over safety, potentially leading to mass unemployment and dependence on AI systems. We also discuss how evolutionary dynamics might [...]