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PlaylistsAI takeoff speedsWhat a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speedsWhat a compute-centric framework says about AI takeoff speeds
23 January 2023 · Tom_Davidson (forum.effectivealtruism.org)
Playlist
AI takeoff speeds
Should we expect there to be a sharp discontinuity in AI capabilities once they reach human-level?
As part of my work for Open Philanthropy I’ve written a draft report on AI takeoff speeds, the question of how quickly AI capabilities might improve as we approach and surpass human-level AI. Will human-level AI be a bolt from the blue, or will we have AI that is nearly as capable many years earlier?
Most of the analysis is from the perspective of a compute-centric framework, inspired by that used in the Bio Anchors report, in which AI capabilities increase continuously with more training compute and work to develop better AI algorithms.
This post doesn’t summarise the report. Instead I want to explain some of the high-level takeaways from the research which I think apply even if you don’t buy the compute-centric framework.
The framework
h/t Dan Kokotajlo for writing most of this section
This report accompanies and explains https://takeoffspeeds.com (h/t Epoch for building this!), a user-friendly quantitative model [...]
Original text
First published
23 January 2023
